Friedrich Merz : On the Path to Becoming Germany’s Next Chancellor 2025

Friedrich Merz is a prominent German politician and a key leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), one of Germany’s major political parties. Born on November 11, 1955, in Brilon, North Rhine-Westphalia, Friedrich Merz has built an influential career in both politics and business. As of February 24, 2025, he is preparing to become Germany’s next chancellor following the CDU’s victory in the federal election held on February 23, 2025.

Friedrich Merz : Early Political Life

Friedrich Merz’s political journey began early. In 1972, at the age of 17, he joined the Young Union (Junge Union), the youth wing of the CDU and its Bavarian ally, the Christian Social Union (CSU). The CDU is a center-right, Christian-democratic party and has historically been one of Germany’s two dominant political forces, alongside the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD).

After completing his law studies in 1985, Merz briefly worked as a judge and corporate lawyer before entering full-time politics in 1989. He was elected as a CDU representative in the European Parliament, where he served until 1994. He then transitioned to the German Bundestag (Federal Parliament).

Rise in the CDU

In the Bundestag, Merz quickly established himself as a financial policy expert within the CDU. In 2000, he was elected chairman of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, making him a key leader at the federal level. The CSU, although a separate party, operates as the CDU’s Bavarian counterpart and shares a joint parliamentary group in the Bundestag.

During this period, Merz’s main rival was Angela Merkel, who became CDU chairwoman the same year. Their competition for party leadership led to significant internal struggles. After the 2002 federal election, Merkel took over the CDU/CSU parliamentary leadership, relegating Friedrich Merz to the role of deputy leader. Dissatisfied with this shift, Friedrich Merz resigned in 2004 and gradually withdrew from politics. In 2009, he left the Bundestag entirely to focus on his career in law and business.

Return to Politics and CDU Leadership

Friedrich Merz returned to politics in 2021, running for CDU leadership. After two unsuccessful attempts in 2018 and January 2021, he finally succeeded, officially taking over as CDU chairman on January 31, 2022, replacing Armin Laschet. Under his leadership, the CDU shifted further to the right compared to Merkel’s centrist governance from 2005 to 2021. Merz emphasized economic liberalism, stricter migration policies, and a stronger European defense strategy.

2025 Federal Election and Party Strategy

In September 2024, Merz was named the CDU/CSU alliance’s candidate for chancellor in the 2025 federal election, with support from CDU leader Hendrik Wüst and CSU leader Markus Söder. The election, held on February 23, 2025, saw the CDU/CSU alliance secure approximately 28.6% of the vote, making it the largest party in the Bundestag but falling short of an outright majority.

Germany’s political system is based on proportional representation, which usually necessitates coalition governments. The CDU/CSU’s potential coalition partners include:

• Social Democratic Party (SPD): The center-left SPD, led by outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, secured 16.4% of the vote—its worst election result in history. Despite this, Merz has left open the possibility of forming a coalition with the SPD.
• The Greens: This environmentalist party won 11.6% of the vote and could be a coalition partner, though CSU leader Söder opposes this option, making negotiations complex.
• Free Democratic Party (FDP): The pro-business FDP received only 4.3% of the vote and failed to cross the 5% threshold needed for Bundestag seats, making them irrelevant in coalition talks.
• Alternative for Germany (AfD): The far-right AfD won 20.8% of the vote, achieving its strongest federal election result. However, Merz has ruled out forming a coalition with them. Nonetheless, in January 2025, the CDU controversially relied on AfD votes to pass a migration policy, leading to public criticism.
• The Left (Die Linke): With 8.8% of the vote, this far-left party is unlikely to be part of a Merz-led government.
• Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW): This new left-wing populist party, with 4.97% of the vote, failed to meet the 5% threshold for Bundestag representation.

Coalition Prospects

Merz’s most likely coalition options are either a two-party alliance with the SPD or a three-party coalition involving both the SPD and the Greens. He has indicated a willingness to negotiate with these center-left parties, arguing that “they cannot continue like this” after governance challenges under Scholz. However, his past reliance on AfD votes for a migration resolution in early 2025 has complicated his relations with potential coalition partners, who oppose any association with the far right.

If a two-party coalition with the SPD is insufficient for a governing majority, a three-party coalition may be necessary. This could lead to a renewed version of the “traffic light” coalition (SPD, Greens, FDP), which collapsed in November 2024.

Political Ideology and Party Relations

Friedrich Merz represents the conservative wing of the CDU, advocating for economic growth, reducing bureaucracy, and stricter migration policies—positions that differ significantly from Merkel’s more centrist approach. Despite formally rejecting an alliance with the AfD, his strategic use of AfD votes to pass legislation has sparked controversy and internal debates within the CDU.

Internationally, Friedrich Merz supports increasing Europe’s strategic independence, particularly in defense policy. He has criticized the Trump administration while advocating for stronger European defense coordination. At the same time, he remains committed to supporting Ukraine while pushing for a more autonomous European security framework.

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Friedrich Merz political career has been deeply tied to the CDU, with interactions with the CSU, SPD, Greens, and AfD shaping his path to leadership. Under his chancellorship, Germany is likely to shift toward a more conservative policy direction, although coalition politics will play a crucial role in balancing his agenda.